NASA doubles odds of Moon hitting Near-Earth Asteroid [2024 YR4].
"Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated [2024 YR4]’s chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7 to 3.8 percent," the agency said.
#asteroid #2024yr4 #space #science #engineer #media #nasa #tech #news
Aardscheerder 2024 YR4 is vermoedelijk afkomstig uit de hoofdgordel
Astronomen hebben met behulp van het GMOS-instrument (Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph) aan de Gemini Zuid-telescoop bepaald dat de recent gevonden aardscheerder 2024 YR4 een van de grootste objecten in de recente geschiedenis is dat op de Maan kan ins
https://www.kuuke.nl/aardscheerder-2024-yr4-is-vermoedelijk-afkomstig-uit-de-hoofdgordel/
#2024YR4 #aardscheerder #asterode #asterodegordel #GeminiZuid #zonnestelsel
In the UK, you can now watch @Chrislintott and I do our best version of Ted Lasso and talk about football (soccer) and potentially hazardous asteroids. In particular, we were chatting about the case of 2024 YR4 https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002b26m #astrodon #2024YR4
Sky & Telescope covers the case of #2024YR4 and its potential lunar impact in 2032:
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/near-earth-asteroid-2024-yr4-might-aim-for-the-moon/
Here are three orthogonal views of a convex shape model of asteroid 2024 YR4 from the paper - a top down view (X-Y) and 2 side views (X-Z and Y-Z).
The asteroid is spinning around the Z axis.
So, what are the physical processes responsible for this flattish shape? Was the asteroid more spherical in the distant past?
I read people being surprised that #2024YR4 is shaped like an irregular block.
Such a shape is typical for small rapidly-spinning asteroids, which are held together by tensile strength rather than by gravity.
For a similarly-sized comparison, consider 2015 HM10: https://public.nrao.edu/news/radar-2015-hm10/
Scientists are learning more about the roughly 200-foot asteroid 2024 YR4, dubbed the "city killer."
@Futurism reports the asteroid is shaped like a saucer: https://flip.it/VyYm_b
Die #NASA korregierte ihre Berrechnung zu #2024YR4. Es ist eher unwahrscheinlich, dass dieser Asteroid auf die Erde fällt. Es ist eher wahrscheinlich (3,8 %), dass er auf dem Mond fällt.
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/li.3232770 https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/
The discovery and characterization of Earth-crossing asteroid #2024YR4: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.05694 -> Astronomers Trace Earth-Crossing Asteroid to Surprising Origin: https://keckobservatory.org/2024-yr4/ (namely that it's a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids).
Discussion of the lunar impact risk corridor for #2024YR4 in 2032: https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/2024_yr4_moon_impact/112132507 .
3 to 4% chance of lunar impact, with a few tenths of a percent on the far side and the rest on the near side.
But almost all on the day side; so the initial flash from an impact by #2024YR4 would be competing with the brightness of the entire rest of the Moon.
An impact of #asteroid #2024YR4 on the #Moon could be visible from Earth, if it impacts the side that faces us. Additional hazards not mentioned in articles I've seen so far would affect planning for #NASA #Artemis landing missions and Lunar Gateway space station (not yet launched). Some ejecta/debris from the impact would leave the Moon's weak gravity and could threaten Earth or our satellites weeks or months after impact. #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space
"Asteroid will miss Earth — but may set off lunar light show" by @cosmiclog / @alanboyle - #Asteroid #2024YR4 orbit is understood well enough now that it will not impact Earth in 2032. But it's still close. A lunar impact remains possible, currently at 3.8% probability. The article paints a picture of just a light show visible from Earth. But there are more potential hazards. https://cosmiclog.com/2025/04/07/asteroid-will-miss-earth-but-may-set-off-lunar-light-show/ #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space
Good news: #Asteroid #2024YR4 won't hit Earth in 2032. Potentially better news: It might hit the moon, sparking a scientifically interesting but harmless light show. Stay tuned... https://cosmiclog.com/2025/04/07/asteroid-will-miss-earth-but-may-set-off-lunar-light-show/ #Space #Moon
#2024YR4 work by the asteroid group at Helsinki.
QT University of Helsinki @helsinki.fi
2025 April 4
Pohjoismainen teleskooppi NOT oli avainasemassa selvitettäessä potentiaalisesti vaarallisen asteroidin todennäköisyyttä törmätä Maahan.
Asteroidi 2024 YR4:llä on tällä hetkellä 0,001 prosentin todennäköisyys Maahan, mutta jopa noin 4 prosentin todennäköisyys Kuuhun.
https://www.helsinki.fi/fi/uutiset/avaruus/asteroidin-tormaysuhka-arviot-maahan-ja-kuuhun-tarkentuneet [ Finnish ]
https://www.helsinki.fi/en/news/space/asteroid-impact-threat-estimates-improved-earth-and-moon [ English ]
Noticias sobre #2024YR4, el asteroide que activó el sistema de aviso de defensa plantearía. Con observaciones del JWST se reestima su tamaño entre 53 y 67 metros. Difícilmente impactará con la Tierra 
, pero con la Luna la probabilidad es de un 3,8%
https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/
NASA’s Webb telescope captures photos of the asteroid that won’t hit Earth in 2032.
@AssociatedPress reports on the asteroid 2024 YR4: https://flip.it/6O2d.1
Confirmation from NASA in https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/ that with the new Webb plus additional ground-based astrometry the impact probability of #2024YR4 for the Moon has risen to 3.8% or 1:26. By mid-month ground-based observers will lose sight of the asteroid but Webb will have one more look in May.
CNEOS at JPL now quotes a 3.8% chance of #2024YR4 impacting the Moon in 2032.
Again; the different trajectory predictions differ very slightly because of different data weights.
https://www.europesays.com/de/3395/ „Wir drücken die Daumen“: Asteroid 2024 YR₄ könnte noch immer den Mond treffen #2024YR4 #Asteroid #Astronomie #Deutschland #Germany #JamesWebbSpaceTelescope #JamesWebbWeltraumteleskop #JWST #Science #Science&Technology #Technik #Technology #Wissen #Wissenschaft #Wissenschaft&Technik
